Wednesday, July 25, 2007



June 18, 2007 (http://sumocat.blogspot.com/2007/06/iphone-reinvents-product-launch-sort-of.html): "True, but I assumed the 3 million count was to prevent shortages. I don't think anyone expects Apple to sell 30% of their target at launch or even within the first month." --Sumocat

Boy, was I wrong. Turns out the analysts were predicting a lot more based on their hideously flawed estimates for the first two days of iPhone activations. Analysts predicted 500,000 iPhone activations in the first two days. If those numbers carried through, there would be 15 million iPhones activated in the first month. Of course, those numbers would drop considerably after the debut, but even an 80% drop would still result in 3 million activations.

The actual number of iPhone's activated in the first two days was 146,000, which puts it on track to NOT hit 3 million in the first month. If that figure sounds low, it's because the analysts have misled you and/or you didn't think it through (happens a lot with Apple products).

First, we know all those iPhones sold in the first two days were not activated in the first two days. Many were bought online. Others were eBay'd. A few suffered activation delays. One guy (named Matt Miller (http://blogs.zdnet.com/mobile-gadgeteer/?p=461)) bought three and only activated one. And there are those people who just didn't activate until later. So the assumption that volume sold would come close to number activated was explicitly wrong.

Second, why isn't mainstream media chastising the analysts for cooking their estimates? Gizmodo (http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/apple/att-earnings-call-apples-stock-down-due-to-wild-analyst-predictions-281761.php) smacked the analysts for their BS assumptions, but MSM seems unanimous in spinning it as a failing by Apple and AT&T. How is it their fault that the analysts are morons?

Well, regardless of how accurate I was in believing 3 million iPhones in the first month is an unrealistic expectation, the fact remains that I stated no one would be stupid enough to believe otherwise. Okay, analysts, you got me. I was wrong because you clearly were that stupid.



CateGoogles: mobile_tech
Mood = unimpressed

Labels:

An iPhone assumption proves wrong


2 Comments:

  1. What you gonna do? iPHONE will still sell and win in long term and I'm still using my Mobile Wings and leave my iPHONE with dust becuase it is good looking but that's it....

    By Blogger Chun Shun, at 7/26/2007 07:05:00 AM
     

  2. Not sure what you mean, but if you mean what I think you mean, then I agree the iPhone will look very strong in the future. Even though I doubt Apple will hit their 10 million target, I think they'll come close enough. And of course, after they roll out a "Nano" version, things will heat up from there.

    By Blogger Sumocat, at 7/26/2007 09:05:00 AM
     

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