iPhone SDK: Brutal but not lethal
Fake Steve Jobs (http://fakesteve.blogspot.com/2008/03/happy-now-bitches.html) declared all iPhone competitors dead. Warner Crocker (http://www.gottabemobile.com/It+Is+All+Over+But+The+Crying+Apple+SDK.aspx) thinks its all over except the crying. Rob Bushway (http://www.gottabemobile.com/iPhone+SDK+Available+Now+100m+In+VC+Funding+For+IPhone+Software+Development.aspx) thinks Apple took the UMPC/MID market away. I'm not so optimistic.
Optimistic? They're saying it's over. What could be worse than that? A lot actually.
Remember, I called the iPhone launch an "ass-kicking" (http://sumocat.blogspot.com/2007/01/apple-officially-kicks-everyones-ass.html) and the "opening salvo". (http://sumocat.blogspot.com/2007/07/iphone-nano-heres-my-prediction.html)To me, the SDK launch is just round two. It's a savage beating, but there's more punishment to come, and a dead foe feels no pain.
No, we can expect a counter-strike from Intel, Microsoft, Nokia, and the others. But we can already predict what Apple will fire back in return: 3G/4G connectivity, the iPhone Nano, and the end of AT&T's exclusivity.
Yes, the SDK launch was a massive pummeling, but the final blow? No, that's at least a little more than four years away. And even then, who knows? Whatever doesn't kill you only makes you stronger, right? Interesting days await.
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Labels: mobile tech
iPhone SDK: Brutal but not lethal
posted by Sumocat at 3/07/2008 09:38:00 PM
6 Comments:
I agree with you. But I only hope that this urges Nokia (since Microsoft appears to have its hands in too many pots) to quickly counter this move. I actually think they're closer than Apple since they already have experience in the MID scene, but maybe with marketing and a little OCD, they'll play up more towards HID's/Nid's.
By archiwiz, at 3/09/2008 10:06:00 PM
We also agree that Nokia is the major competitor here. They are often overlooked since they lack a strong presence in the States, but they have the hardware experience to offer a real alternative to Apple. However, I've stated a few times that their weakness is their lack of computer experience. Nokia's devices are easily as good or better than Apple's, but as handhelds get more powerful, the edge will inexorably shift to the computer maker.
By Sumocat, at 3/09/2008 10:25:00 PM
I would take Intel out of the firing line.
Apple likes Intel now, and is no doubt eager to use their new processors in future iPhones and the so-called Safari-pad/tablet that is speculated.
By Anonymous, at 3/12/2008 12:20:00 PM
Intel put themselves in the firing line with their Mobile Internet Device (MID) program. True, the MID is more directly competitive with the iPod Touch than the iPhone, but the SDK situation applies to both devices. That said, I suppose it would be more accurate to say Intel *is putting* themselves in the firing line since the fruits of their program haven't actually been marketed yet.
By Sumocat, at 3/12/2008 12:37:00 PM
Intel has traditionally come up with lots of ideas for products. Remember embedded audio processing back in the day on a 386!
Every year they come out with new platforms and new product ideas and categories.
Some get further along than others. Some succeed, some don't. But intel does try to 'control' their future by building demand.
Nobody, intel or otherwise is going to push Jobs & co to come out with a new product directly. But if intel can push the MID's and UMPC's and such and get within striking distance of sucess, Apple will come in an make the category their own.
And use Intel processors and chipsets in the process.
Besides, I don't think intel is taking too much of a financial risk on MIDs versus the actual companies that will make/market them.
They just want to orders for processors and keep the factories humming.
By Anonymous, at 3/12/2008 02:26:00 PM
Okay, but I don't understand how any of that makes Intel *not* a player in this game. It's possible Intel's MID program will be DOA, but as of now, they are still pushing forward with it, and I think it reasonable to assume they will put up some resistance to Apple's dominance of the mobile Internet field. That said, I think they're the least of Apple's competition, and it would not surprise me if they stepped out early.
By Sumocat, at 3/12/2008 02:52:00 PM
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