Tablet PC: Evolution and Extinction

Tablet PC: Evolution and Extinction

I seem to have kicked off a combination of hope (http://www.lorenheiny.com/2009/05/04/the-tablet-pc-has-another-competitor-in-universities-the-kindle-dx/) and concern (http://www.gottabemobile.com/2009/05/05/ereaders-to-drive-tablet-pc-further-into-a-niche/) for the future of Tablet PCs today when I noted students carrying around the reportedly bigger Kindle DX (http://www.gottabemobile.com/2009/05/05/that-larger-amazon-kindle-is-going-to-be-used-for-textbooks/) will be disinclined to carry a Tablet PC along with it.

The concern for me is that it will dampen enthusiasm for the Tablet PC. If a student has all their textbooks on an electronic reader that allow annotations, why bother carrying a second tablet device for note-taking? It almost adds back in the costs, weight, and bulk shed by using digital books.

There are benefits to such a combo, and I'd certainly be inclined to try it. But for most people, it would be a third device, after a multi-function phone, of limited added value relative to the costs.

On the other hand, the Kindle DX is yet another tablet device at a time Loren Heiny is calling the Year of the Slate (http://www.lorenheiny.com/2009/05/04/this-is-the-year-of-the-slate/). Certainly the enthusiasm for single-piece computing devices is there. So that's gotta be good for Tablet PCs, right?

Well, yes and no. See, the market is growing around appliance-type slates, devices designed for particular purposes. No matter how versatile devices like the iPhone or Crunchpad become, they are still built with key activities in mind. The Tablet PC, however, has always been a general computing device, albeit one with expanded functionality for mobility. Ironically, the specialized slates are going mainstream, while the general purpose tablet remains niche.

Thus, the Tablet PC is in danger of being squeezed further out of the mainstream market by specialty slates. If it stays true to its GP roots, it risks extinction. If it evolves into more specialized forms, extinction is guaranteed. Why? Because one of a Tablet PC's defining features is that it is a general computing device. Lose that and the category ceases to be. Either way, I predict we will see even less activity in the Tablet PC market for the foreseeable future.

However, my hope is that the specialty slates will ultimately instill in users a desire for tablet functionality in their general computing devices, culminating in a Tablet PC renaissance. Far fetched? Maybe, but the path is there.
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